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On 2023 May 29, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration observed a compact binary coalescence event consistent with a neutron star–black hole merger, though the heavier object of mass $$2.5-4.5\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$$ would fall into the purported lower mass gap. An alternative explanation for apparent observations of events in this mass range has been suggested as strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron stars. In this scenario, magnification would lead to the source appearing closer and heavier than it really is. Here, we investigate the chances and possible consequences for the GW230529 event to be gravitationally lensed. We find this would require high magnifications and we obtain low rates for observing such an event, with a relative fraction of lensed versus unlensed observed events of $$2\times 10^{-3}$$ at most. When comparing the lensed and unlensed hypotheses accounting for the latest rates and population model, we find a $1/58$ chance of lensing, disfavouring this option. Moreover, when the magnification is assumed to be strong enough to bring the mass of the heavier binary component below the standard upper limits on neutron star masses, we find high probability for the lighter object to have a subsolar mass, making the binary even more exotic than a mass-gap neutron star–black hole system. Even when the secondary is not subsolar, its tidal deformability would likely be measurable, which is not the case for GW230529. Finally, we do not find evidence for extra lensing signatures such as the arrival of additional lensed images, type-II image dephasing, or microlensing. Therefore, we conclude it is unlikely for GW230529 to be a strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron star signal. 

General relativity (GR) has proven to be a highly successful theory of gravity since its inception. The theory has thrivingly passed numerous experimental tests, predominantly in weak gravity, low relative speeds, and linear regimes, but also in the strong-field and very low-speed regimes with binary pulsars. Observable gravitational waves (GWs) originate from regions of spacetime where gravity is extremely strong, making them a unique tool for testing GR, in previously inaccessible regions of large curvature, relativistic speeds, and strong gravity. Since their first detection, GWs have been extensively used to test GR, but no deviations have been found so far. Given GR’s tremendous success in explaining current astronomical observations and laboratory experiments, accepting any deviation from it requires a very high level of statistical confidence and consistency of the deviation across GW sources. In this paper, we compile a comprehensive list of potential causes that can lead to a false identification of a GR violation in standard tests of GR on data from current and future ground-based GW detectors. These causes include detector noise, signal overlaps, gaps in the data, detector calibration, source model inaccuracy, missing physics in the source and in the underlying environment model, source misidentification, and mismodeling of the astrophysical population. We also provide a rough estimate of when each of these causes will become important for tests of GR for different detector sensitivities. We argue that each of these causes should be thoroughly investigated, quantified, and ruled out before claiming a GR violation in GW observations. 

Abstract Strong gravitational lensing of gravitational wave sources offers a novel probe of both the lens galaxy and the binary source population. In particular, the strong lensing event rate and the time-delay distribution of multiply imaged gravitational-wave binary coalescence events can be used to constrain the mass distribution of the lenses as well as the intrinsic properties of the source population. We calculate the strong lensing event rate for a range of second- (2G) and third-generation (3G) detectors, including Advanced LIGO/Virgo, A+, Einstein Telescope (ET), and Cosmic Explorer (CE). For 3G detectors, we find that ∼0.1% of observed events are expected to be strongly lensed. We predict detections of ∼1 lensing pair per year with A+, and ∼50 pairs per year with ET/CE. These rates are highly sensitive to the characteristic galaxy velocity dispersion, σ * , implying that observations of the rates will be a sensitive probe of lens properties. We explore using the time-delay distribution between multiply imaged gravitational-wave sources to constrain properties of the lenses. We find that 3G detectors would constrain σ * to ∼21% after 5 yr. Finally, we show that the presence or absence of strong lensing within the detected population provides useful insights into the source redshift and mass distribution out to redshifts beyond the peak of the star formation rate, which can be used to constrain formation channels and their relation to the star formation rate and delay-time distributions for these systems.